Long Way Down

The latest CSO figures for retail sales in Ireland in 2009 are a sobering reminder of how severe the recession has been in consumer markets. Though the retail indices are based on 2005 figures for comparative purposes (and are all down on the 2005 base of 100.0), the reality is that the indices understate the collapse in sales.

Instead we have to look at sales at their maximum - which was 2007 for most markets (and 2008 in a minority of cases). Comparing sales values in 2009 with their maximum values 1-2 years previously shows the true scale of the collapse. The table does just that: note that retail sales on average are down nearly 22% since their peak. That's a long way down:

Signs of Recovery

Our latest AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator for January 2010 has just been published.

It points to a significant improvement in consumer sentiment about the prospects for economic recovery - even if they are hedging their bets in relation to their own spending and saving behaviour:

AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator January 2010

View more presentations from Amárach Research.

More details on AIB's website.

A Culture of Complaint

The bad news? There are a lot of complaining customers out there. The good news? Customers whose complaints are dealt with satisfactorily are happy to keep doing business with you.

Details of our latest research for the National Consumer Agency below:

A Culture of Complaint

View more presentations from Amárach Research.

Further background information available at the NCA website.

eRevolution not eVolution

Ireland's recession has changed consumer usage of the Internet irrevocably. We see it in Amárach's surveys for the National Consumer Agency - 7 in 10 Irish adults now use the net, and 7 in 10 of these have shopped online, as the chart shows:




And it isn't just a consumer phenomenon. The latest Eurostat data on the state of ecommerce in the European Union shows that Irish based businesses generate a higher share of their turnover from ecommerce than businesses in any other EU27 country:



The recession has accelerated a trend that was under way beforehand. But what once progressed at an evolutionary pace is now progressing at a revolutionary pace.

Precisely Wrong

We're a big fan of The Ad Contrarian here at the Amárach Research Blog. He keeps us (and most everyone in marketing) on their toes. Especially when he challenges those of us wedded to measurement and statistics to admit when we "don't know". Like a lot of our survey respondents, come to think of it.

Humbling stuff - though if a little humility helps us do better by our clients then that's a good thing.

The Ageing Opportunity

Amárach Research is part of a team developing a forthcoming conference on The Business of Ageing. The opportunities of an ageing society will be enormous for those businesses that focus on the changing needs of the over 50s and over 60s age groups.

Nor are they confined to healthcare and nursing homes. We came across the idea of the ageless home recently. Very clever: just what our moribund building sector needs come to think of it. And there are many more opportunities like that out there. And if you attend the conference you're bound to come away with one or three of your own ;-)

The Spending Spectrum

What does the year ahead look like for Irish consumer markets? At the moment it depends on who you talk to.

Though everyone is agreed last year (2009) was really bad, there is far less consensus about the outlook for 2010 - as the table shows. The most pessimistic on consumer spending is the Central Bank: they expect another fall in spending this year of up to 4%.

Clearly the most optimistic is Davy stockbrokers: they actually expect to see an increase in real consumer spending of 1% this year (and a buoyant 3.6% next year). That's a five percentage point difference between the two extremes.

Still, it's only January: the picture should be a lot clearer over the next few months as unemployment peaks (hopefully), and confidence returns to consumer markets. In all likelihood we will have further contraction in consumer spending in the first half of the year, and year-on-year growth in spending in the second half.

Whether the latter is large enough to offset the former only time will tell.