Did Senator Clinton beat the market research industry in New Hampshire?

Hillary Clinton’s stunning victory in New Hampshire not only punctured Obama’s drive for the Democratic nomination, it also cast doubt, yet again, on the role of polls in political campaigns.

That misses the point. Clinton’s victory was only stunning in the context of her loss in Iowa five days earlier. The fact that Obama came within a few percentage points of winning in New Hampshire would have been regarded as a major upset a month ago, when he was the underdog and she was the certainty. The methodology and measurement of market research may not have been that wrong in New Hampshire. It is much more likely that in the intense five day period since the Iowa caucuses, voters flip-flopped and did not actually decide which way they would cast their ballots until the last minute in the polling booth.