Demography Is Destiny

Everyone interested in Irish consumer trends needs to pay particular attention to demography. Demography is destiny in terms of future consumer numbers and needs.

The European Commission have published an excellent Demography Report 2008 for the EU that is packed (all 252 pages) full of fascinating and insightful data, comparisons and forecasts. Things like:

- Irish women are the oldest in Europe in terms of the average mother's age at birth of first child

- Irish women live nearly 4.5 years longer on average than Irish men

- In 2060 Ireland will still have proportionately one of the youngest populations in Europe.

It's great resource: endless content for PowerPoint slides and pub quizzes!

Taste the Difference

A big problem in every focus group is getting people to image themselves doing something they've never done before. Nearly as hard as wine tasting. Which is why we like the Wine Flavor Visualizer.

Now if we can extend the application to new cars, credit cards, frozen pizzas and low alcohol beer we might even get to finish the groups early!

From 4 Ps to 4 Es

We like this one from across the pond: it looks like the recession is making lots of folk re-think the purpose and priorities of marketing. It seems the 4Ps - product, place, price and promotion - have been replaced by the 4Es (pdf).

Take Price - it has been replaced by Exchange:

Appreciate the value of things, not just the cost. Start by calculating the value of your customers – and what their attention, engagement and permission are worth to you.

Worried retailers, media owners and advertisers please note.

From Credit Crunch to Charity Crunch?

It's that time of year when many of us reach into our wallets, purses and pockets to donate to charities. But with the Credit Crunch now deepening are we set for a Charity Crunch? That certainly seems to be the outlook in the United States.

Perhaps that's a precursor for the outlook in Ireland? Amárach Research has worked with a large number of charities in recent years. Our experience suggests that Irish people are exceptionally generous - so that should provide some protection. But most donations are in cash to collectors on the street rather than direct debit. The latter has been the focus of a lot of fund raising in recent years by charities.

Those worried about the Credit Crunch would be best advised to hold on tighter to your direct debit contributors. And maybe get out there with the collection buckets more often ...

POSTSCRIPT:

And another thing: why not approach 'youth brands' to partner your charity? It's now the cool way for brands to reach youth markets.

Digital Advertising Keeps Growing

The 2008 Accenture Global Digital Advertising Study points to a very rosy future indeed for digital advertising. Already they estimate the global market to be worth €45 billion - and growing. By 2012, they forecast digital's share of the advertising pie will reach 21%.

Good news for value-focussed Irish marketers needing to justify return-on-investment.

Ulster Says Ouch!

That's the message from today's Ulster Bank quarterly economic outlook (pdf) for the Republic of Ireland. Consumer spending is forecast to fall -3.0% in 2009; consumer prices will deflate by -0.5%; and house prices by -9.0%. Not a pretty picture.

Still, they are forecasting growth in 2010 - just.

Real Time Pain

We're big fans of consumer confidence tracking at Amárach Research, so it's always nice to see how it's done elsewhere. Take, for example, the daily confidence tracker operated by Gallup and Healthways in the United States. It shows the extraordinarily rapid impact of the bad economic news through October on US consumers - with a spike in those reporting themselves as 'struggling'.

As the bloggers at Freakonomics observe, the fall in US consumer confidence is equivalent to the impact of a 50% drop in income per head: that's big - and painful.

Though we only have monthly data in Ireland, there is no doubt that we've gone through a similar 'whiplash economy' effect in the past few months. And our economic necks are going to keep hurting for a long time to come.

Colour Me Stressful

Amárach recently worked with researchers at The Geary Institute to produce 'emotional maps' of the journeys to work of commuters in Tallaght. We recruited 30 volunteers and split them between those who drove to work and those who used public transport.

Each volunteer wore a heart monitor and carried a gps device. The data from both devices were then merged with images from Google Earth to create an emotional map of their journey that morning - literally showing their heart rate as it changed from their leaving home to their arriving at work.

It was a small sample but the findings are fascinating - and the pictures are awesome: see if you can spot the Red Cow Roundabout on the map!

We intend doing more work with the UCD/TCD team on the Geary project to extend the research methodology to other scenarios and consumer groups to better understand the emotional impact of different experiences on people's intentions and behaviour.

Deflated or Defeated?

September's retail sales data from the CSO makes for grim reading. 11 out of 13 retail business categories have seen the value of sales decline year-on-year.

5 out of 13 categories are now experiencing deflation - prices are falling whether sales volumes are up or not (mostly not). The categories experiencing deflation are:

- department stores
- clothing
- footwear
- furniture
- electrical goods

Of the remaining 8 categories the value of sales are down in 6 (only supermarkets and convenience stores saw an increase) - including:

- car dealers
- chemists
- DIY
- newsagents
- pubs
- others

Good news for bargain-hungry Christmas shoppers: not so good news for cost-pressured Irish retailers.

Inflation's Hissing Sound

Good news from the Central Statistics Office today for hard pressed consumers: inflation fell to 4.0% in October. That's a full percentage point lower than in June.

Leading the way are Clothing & Footwear and Furniture & Electrical Goods: both experienced deflation last month. So before you decide to put your prices up, best check out the detailed price trends for your sector here in case you're going the wrong way ...