Equal Opportunity Recession

Irish consumers will spend €92.5 billion this year, that’s according to the latest Central Bank forecasts. It’s a lot of money – but not as much as last year (€94.4 billion). One curious aspect of Irish consumer spending is how little the relative shares of some sub-categories of spending have changed over the past eighteen years. Accompanying the forecasts is the following table, which shows that the relative shares of goods and services has remained unchanged since 1995 – though some have fallen (e.g.: food), while others have risen (e.g.: transport and communication).

Nevertheless, the Central Bank is expecting an ‘equal opportunity’ recession, with spending in all categories falling in 2009.

Save Us from Savings

It’s tough for Irish retailers right now. Very tough. The latest CSO Retail Sales Index shows the volume of sales falling by -8.1% in November 2008 year-on-year. Some of this is due to a mixture of cross-border shopping, competition and rising unemployment.

But something else is driving the decline beyond ‘normal’ economic boundaries. It is consumer psychology: though unemployment is rising, the rate is still less than half the rate some ten years ago. Most people still have the same jobs they had in November 2007 – so the decline in November 2008 was about more than just incomes and spending power. Especially as falling mortgage rates and price levels now mean that the same amount of money goes much further than it did a year ago.

The obvious explanation is that consumers are saving more. In fact, the latest European Commission economic forecast for Ireland projects that we will have the highest savings ratio in the EU next year, at over 19%. Looks like it’s going to get a lot tougher for Irish retailers.

Peig Would Approve

At last, an application to connect digital natives with digital reclusives. Facebook are trialling a delightful application called Send With Peggy whereby young people on Facebook can write a post card online and a real one is then posted (free, for now) by Facebook to their elderly relatives anywhere in the UK or Ireland.

We think Peig would have approved: Peig 2.0 perhaps?

(Thanks to the Ageing Well Network for the tip btw).

Really Mad Men

A short history of advertising in three minutes and thirty seconds flat:



The message: the biggest challenge facing brands today is relevance ...

Marketing with Meaning

For those of you struggling to connect your corporate social responsibility agenda with the business challenges of a recession then here is an inspiring story. It's from Starbucks, who have used the inauguration of the 44th President to launch a campaign built very much on Obama's message of 'yes we can'. And why not?

The campaign is built on the 'marketing with meaning' model, summarised below:

The Price Is Tight

The latest Consumer Price Index (pdf) for December 2008 is good news for consumers and income earners: though probably not for the businesses selling to them. The fall back in inflation is quite extraordinary: from a little over 5% in June last year to just over 1% in December.

Much of it is driven by the collapsing price of imported goods, including energy. Some sectors are increasing (health, refuse collection) - but not many.

The challenge for marketers is clear: how do you justify holding (or even increasing) your prices to customers when all about them they see prices falling? It comes back to value - as Buffett once put it: 'price is what you pay, value is what you get'. Best get working on that value, unless you plan a price cut in the near future.

HSE 2.0

This might save a euro or two for the Health Service Executive: just let all the doctors and consultants interact with patients directly online.

The idea is called ZocDoc and it works as follows:

Users simply search for the type of appointment they need—the site currently offers primary care, dermatology, ophthalmology, ENT, orthopedics, OB/GYN and dentistry—and they get a list of immediately bookable appointments in their area. Background details and patient reviews are available for each doctor and dentist listed on the site, and ZocDoc can also filter results by location and insurance accepted.

It's only available in New York mind - wonder when it'll reach Ireland?

Our Playful Future

Here's one phenomenon bound to thrive in the recession (hat tip: Advertising Pawn)

Video Gaming Trends

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Did You Know?

A healthy reminder that there's life beyond the recession - and lots (and lots) of business opportunities out there:



via Future Lab

Marketers to the Rescue

Here's one to cheer you up - why marketers should have bigger budgets in a recession, with the numbers to justify it. Enjoy!

Ads on Edge

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Adpocalypse Now?

The downturn in consumer spending through 2008 has inevitably impacted on advertising spending in Ireland. Though Irish ad spending is historically not quite as sensitive to economic variables such as GDP as in the UK or USA, it can't defy gravity either.

An excellent presentation by Morgan Stanley's Mary Meeker on Web 2.0's first recession points to a far gloomier outlook in the USA than anything anticipated in Ireland: see slide 26. So bad it has been dubbed the 'Adpocalypse'.

One thing's for sure: Irish advertisers will get far more bang for their scarce media budgets in 2009 - think 'sale of the decade'.

An Inspiring Start

We're big fans of Springwise at Amárach- a great resource for inspiring business ideas and concepts. And given the difficult year that lies ahead everyone needs inspiration from time to time.

Take their 'Top 10 Ideas in 2008' series just finished. They have taken different categories (media, food, retailing and several others) and drawn on their extensive global database to highlight the ideas that most impressed them in the year just finished.

We think you'll be impressed and inspired too. As the folks in Tesco would say: every little helps ...